Browse Topic: Risk management
This study presents a data-driven approach for strengthening aviation safety by integrating human factors assessment with modern predictive modeling techniques. The work focuses on understanding how human performance, operational conditions, and system-level interactions collectively influence safety risk, and how these interactions can be quantified to support improved design and decision-making. Unlike previous studies that address human factors or predictive modeling in isolation, this research offers a unified framework that links causal human factors indicators with statistical modeling, feature extraction, and machine learning based risk estimation. The novelty of this work lies in the structured pipeline that transforms raw categorical and narrative human factors information into measurable predictors that can be analyzed using structural modeling and machine learning. The methodology includes data preparation, dimensionality reduction, latent pattern discovery, dependence modeling, model training, and interpretability analysis. The study demonstrates how this pipeline uncovers hidden relationships among operational errors, environmental influences, maintenance actions, design considerations, and crew behavior. The findings show that the integrated approach improves the accuracy and stability of risk prediction and highlights specific human factors patterns that consistently contribute to elevated risk levels. These insights support targeted mitigation strategies, inform design improvements, and help prioritize safety interventions. The work concludes that a combined human factors and predictive modeling framework enhances the ability of organizations to identify vulnerabilities earlier, allocate resources more effectively, and strengthen system resilience. This approach is adaptable to diverse aviation contexts and offers a practical path for transforming human factors data into actionable safety intelligence.
This SAE standard establishes the requirement for suppliers to plan a reliability program that satisfies the following three requirements: a The supplier shall ascertain customer requirements b The supplier shall meet customer requirements c The supplier shall assure that customer requirements have been met
This study presents a structured evaluation framework for reasonably foreseeable misuse in automated driving systems (ADS), grounded in the ISO 21448 Safety of the Intended Functionality (SOTIF) lifecycle. Although SOTIF emphasizes risks that arise from system limitations and user behavior, the standard lacks concrete guidance for validating misuse scenarios in practice. To address this gap, we propose an end-to-end methodology that integrates four components: (1) hazard modeling via system–theoretic process analysis (STPA), (2) probabilistic risk quantification through numerical simulation, (3) verification using high-fidelity simulation, and (4) empirical validation via driver-in-the-loop system (DILS) experiments. Each component is aligned with specific SOTIF clauses to ensure lifecycle compliance. We apply this framework to a case of driver overreliance on automated emergency braking (AEB) at high speeds—a condition where system intervention is intentionally suppressed. Initial numerical analysis suggested that the scenario narrowly satisfies the acceptance criteria. Applying the proposed framework to this scenario reveals that significant safety risks can persist even when the system functions according to its design intent. Our findings demonstrate that foreseeable misuse can be formally modeled, simulated, and empirically validated within the SOTIF framework. The proposed approach enables system developers to quantify behavioral risk and assess human-centered edge cases with greater rigor. This work contributes to operationalizing SOTIF for behavioral safety assurance and lays the foundation for future research on risk mitigation through adaptive HMI and context-aware alerts.
Research into the feasibility of a scaled rim-drive propulsion product to enable ultra-heavy vertical lift (UHVL) is ongoing at the University of South Carolina in partnership with KRyanCreative, LLC, a start-up aerospace small business. The research team is advancing a superconductive design concept for a rotor system that delivers significant performance gains and flight envelope expansion disruptive to the vertical lift transportation sector. The team has conceived a novel electric tip-driven ducted propulsor to guide architectural and engineering investigations that improve hover and acoustic performance over current practice without penalty to weight and cost. This paper summarizes the data and assumptions that emerge from the systems engineering process of requirements decomposition for product realization. Requirements are categorized as to whether they are explicit (programs of record) or implied (comparable business case or as an alternative to a program of record). Risk reduction enroute to technical feasibility is addressed with a methodology that applies predictive analytics aided by artificial intelligence that will accelerate prototype fabrication by 2030 and fast track market incentives for multiple aviation technologies.
Conflicts between aircraft and flying animals, namely birds and bats, are a persistent hazard across a broad range of missions and geographies. This research proposes a technology-based architecture to provide an end-to-end future solution space for wildlife strike risk mitigation in uncrewed Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) operations. These operations are expected to involve a high density of air vehicles in the region of the atmosphere with the greatest wildlife activity. Many of these operations may be remotely piloted or fully autonomous, removing the primary onboard mitigation of a pilot in the cockpit. Most technologies from the current solution space can be adapted and updated to support future AAM needs, but substantial gaps remain to be filled before full autonomy can be realized. These technological shortfalls should be addressed now, while vehicles and their supporting infrastructure are still in development and mitigation measures can be more readily implemented.
Systems Engineering is a method for developing complex products, aiming to improve cost and time estimates and ensure product validation against its requirements. This is crucial to meet customer needs and maintain competitiveness in the market. Systems Engineering activities include requirements, configuration, interface, deadlines, and technical risks management, as well as definition and decomposition of requirements, implementation, integration, and verification and validation testing. The use of digital tools in Systems Engineering activities is called Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). The MBSE approach helps engineers manage system complexity, ensuring project information consistency, facilitating traceability and integration of elements throughout the product lifecycle. Its benefits include improved communication, traceability, information consistency, and complexity management. Major companies like Boeing already benefit from this approach, reducing their product development time. In the academic environment, competitions such as Formula SAE BRAZIL, Baja, and AeroDesign offer students opportunities to face real challenges like multidisciplinary optimization and prototype testing. Therefore, this work aims to develop the preliminary architecture of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for the SAE BRAZIL AeroDesign competition, using the MBSE approach. This allows integrating decisions from various departments into a single repository, generating customized maps and tables to represent the created traceability. The UAV architecture focuses on aerodynamics and its impact on landing and takeoff performance. The secondary objective is to provide a study of best practices for teams participating in the SAE BRAZIL AeroDesign competition and for industries facing systemic challenges in their products. Utilizing the MagicGrid method, SysML language, and relevant aeronautical references, the results include interconnected maps and tables that maintain updated information, enable quick verification of aircraft configurations against competition requirements, and reduce the need for constant manual rework.
North American automakers and EV battery firms have five years to erase China's dominance in technology and manufacturing or they may face the reality of buying batteries from China for the foreseeable future. That was the message from battery-analysis company Voltaiq CEO Tal Sholklapper at a media briefing in Detroit. “We're in the final innings now,” Sholklapper said. “If the industry around batteries and electric vehicles and all the follow-on applications wants to make it, we're going to have to change the way we play.”
The extent of automation and autonomy used in general aviation (GA) has been steadily increasing for decades, with the pace of development accelerating recently. This has huge potential benefits for safety given that it is estimated that 75% of the accidents in personal and on-demand GA are due to pilot error. However, an approach to certifying autonomous systems that relies on reversionary modes limits their potential to improve safety. Placing a human pilot in a situation where they are suddenly tasked with flying an airplane in a failed situation, often without sufficient situational awareness, is overly demanding. This consideration, coupled with advancing technology that may not align with a deterministic certification paradigm, creates an opportunity for new approaches to certifying autonomous and highly automated aircraft systems. The new paths must account for the multifaceted aviation approach to risk management which has interlocking requirements for airworthiness and operations (including training and airspace integration). They occur across a variety of different operational paradigms with varying roles for the human and the systems in question. If implemented properly, autonomy can take GA safety to the next level while simultaneously increasing the number and variety of aircraft and transportation options they provide.
When the target value of functional geometrical specification is too tight, its cascade of tolerances is at the feasibility limit of production. In this case, the geometrical Tolerancing method loses its benefits and generates an excessive level of non-Conformity which induces additional costs that are not acceptable. The aim of this paper is first to introduce the background concerning chain of dimension method and tolerances capabilities based on test specimen results. Secondly, demonstrate ability to apply statistical calculation. Thirdly extend conventional chain of dimension in one dimension to multi-holes system installation. And, then analyze potential effect by stress evaluation. And confirm the demonstration of improvement on Tolerancing installation calculations, by onboarding all stakeholder (design, manufacturing, stress) early in design phase (interfaces maturation) and by analyzing more in detail installations constraints. This method should be applied first on "non-critical" junction, because it needs to be further matured and so it is not yet mature enough for primary structure and associated quality checks. In conclusion, as a result, it is possible to increase tolerance specification of parts and manage risks of non-assembly. In conclusion, tolerances for holes localization could be approximatively multiplied by two compared to basic calculation method.
The Research Aircraft for eVTOL Enabling TechNologies (RAVEN) Subscale Wind-Tunnel and Flight Test (SWFT) model is a subscale aircraft built for flight dynamics and controls research demonstrated in wind-tunnel and flight-test experiments. The intent of this paper is to provide a summary of past, current, and future efforts being pursued by the RAVEN-SWFT project. Initially, vehicle development guidelines were crafted by a multidisciplinary team to ensure that the RAVEN-SWFT vehicle was well suited for research in multiple areas, including aero-propulsive modeling, flight controls, and autonomy, among others. The vehicle has been used to obtain extensive wind-tunnel data, enabling aero-propulsive model development across the transition flight envelope and validation of computational tools. The vehicle will be used to conduct flight testing in order to evaluate modeling strategies and flight control logic. The RAVEN-SWFT model also serves as a risk reduction activity for a conceptual, full-scale vehicle in the 1000-lb class. The next steps in the project are to successfully demonstrate free flight in hover, transition, forward flight, and the reverse thereof, utilizing custom control laws integrated onto the RAVEN-SWFT avionics hardware. The project intends to publicize all of the geometry, data, and methods in future reports.
In late 2022, the EU Medical Device Regulation (MDR) was expanded by the addition of the common specifications (CS) 2022/20346. The spe00cifications describe the aspects that must be examined for devices without an intended medical purpose. These aspects apply in addition to the classical MDR requirements and include certain aspects of risk management. In other words, even products that only serve aesthetic purposes, such as colored contact lenses, will be assessed in accordance with the strict MDR regulations and, in addition, will have to fulfill the requirements laid down in the CS 2022/2346.
In autonomous driving vehicles with an automation level greater than three, the autonomous system is responsible for safe driving, instead of the human driver. Hence, the driving safety of autonomous driving vehicles must be ensured before they are used on the road. Because it is not realistic to evaluate all test conditions in real traffic, computer simulation methods can be used. Since driving safety performance can be evaluated by simulating different driving scenarios and calculating the criticality metrics that represent dangerous collision risks, it is necessary to study and define the criticality metrics for the type of driving scenarios. This study focused on the risk of collisions in the confluence area because it was known that the accident rate in the confluence area is much higher than on the main roadway. There have been several experimental studies on safe driving behaviors in the confluence area; however, there has been little study logically exploring the merging actions with mathematical metrics. In light of this, this study introduces a criticality metric representing the risk of a collision in a junction area. The metric calculates the reaction level required to avoid a predicted collision risk; therefore, a safety evaluation can be performed by assessing the reaction effort to prevent such collisions in a driving scenario. The near-miss video data from the database is used to validate the proposed metric for the merging scenario. The database contains various real merging scenarios experienced by human drivers. The proposed metric was validated to identify a critical situation with collision risks and a safe driving situation that can prevent collisions easily, using sample data of merging scenarios from the database. Moreover, an example application for safety assessment was investigated. In summary, the safety performance of autonomous driving vehicles in merging can be evaluated through simulations using the criticality metric. In the future, the results of this study could be applied to develop an on-board risk detection function in the confluence area.
A research team has designed a fall-risk assessment system that enables doctors to create personalized risk-management strategies for patients based on their individual movement patterns at home.
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