An Updated Data-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emission Rate Analysis for Vehicle Comparisons Applied to Europe

This study presents a data-driven lifecycle assessment (LCA) framework for evaluating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles across European electricity systems. The analysis compares battery electric vehicles (BEVs), full hybrid electric vehicles (FHEVs), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) using both conventional average electricity emissions factors and time-resolved marginal emissions, referred to as real charging emissions (RCE). Hourly generation and interconnector/cross-border flow data for 2023 from 29 European countries are processed to estimate consumption-based marginal emissions rates that account for grid dispatch behavior and cross-border electricity flows. The approach is applied to two vehicles where multiple powertrains are available on the same platform, the 2024 Hyundai Kona (available as a BEV, FHEV, and ICEV) and Peugeot 2008 (available as a BEV and ICEV), to isolate drivetrain-related lifecycle differences. Results show substantial divergence between average and marginal emissions estimates, with a mean absolute difference in BEV–FHEV lifecycle emissions of 31–36 g CO₂ eq/km across Europe. In several countries with carbon-intensive marginal generation, including Poland and Cyprus, BEVs may exhibit higher lifecycle emissions than comparable hybrids, while low-carbon grids such as Norway, Sweden, and France provide large BEV advantages. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the importance of transmission losses, temperature effects, electricity imports, and charging timing. These findings highlight the limitations of average grid emissions factors in vehicle LCAs and underscore the importance of geographically and temporally resolved data-driven electricity emissions when assessing electrified vehicle climate impacts.