With the current state of automotive electrification, predicting which
electrification pathway is likely to be the most economical over a 10- to
30-year outlook is wrought with uncertainty. The development of a range of
technologies should continue, including statically charged battery electric
vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles (PHEVs), and EVs designed for a combination of plug-in and electric
road system (ERS) supply.
The most significant uncertainties are for the costs related to hydrogen supply,
electrical supply, and battery life. This greatly is dependent on electrolyzers,
fuel-cell costs, life spans and efficiencies, distribution and storage, and the
price of renewable electricity. Green hydrogen will also be required as an
industrial feedstock for difficult-to-decarbonize areas such as aviation and
steel production, and for seasonal energy buffering in the grid. For ERSs, it is
critical to understand how battery life will be affected by frequent cycling and
the extent to which battery technology from hybrid vehicles can be applied.
Unsettled Issues in Electrical Demand for Automotive Electrification
Pathways dives into the most critical issues the mobility industry is
facing.