Total cost of ownership analysis of fuel cell and hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles for cost competitiveness with ICE and BEV

Worldwide, the automotive industry is pivoting towards electrification and zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) to address greenhouse gas emissions and to meet net-zero emission goals. Although pure electric vehicles with rechargeable high-voltage batteries seem to be the most popular choice to achieve climate goals, hydrogen-powered vehicles are also seen by many as a viable technology to clean up the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cells and fuel cell-powered vehicles have been in development for a long time, and hydrogen internal combustion engines (ICE) have seen rapid development in the past few years. While the technological feasibility of hydrogen fuel cells and H2 ICE is being proven, mass adoption of these technologies depends, along with other factors such as hydrogen infrastructure, upon financial feasibility as well. This paper presents a systematic analysis of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of hydrogen-powered vehicles, especially fuel cell electric vehicles. Different commercial vehicle categories are analysed to assess the vehicle classes and use cases where hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles can be a cost-effective alternative to conventional ICE and battery electric vehicles (BEV). The analysis also determines the factors that contribute most to TCO, which will help identify the areas that require improvement/development or policy support to make fuel cells and hydrogen power more widespread. The paper also analyses the sensitivity of TCO to different cost factors, such as hydrogen cost, which helps in establishing cost targets to make hydrogen-powered vehicles a cost-effective solution in the transition to zero-emission transportation. Finally, different market trends are analysed to predict the timelines in which fuel cell powered vehicles can become cost-competitive with ICE and BEV.