Technology Evaluation for Two Wheeler Based Personal Mobility in Emerging Markets beyond 2020

Personal mobility is evolving in the emerging markets, where the primary need for transportation is met with two wheelers. This reflects on the annual production volumes, which is forecasted to reach 160 million units by 2021[1]. Around 28% of this volume belong to electric two wheelers from China and the remaining are predominantly Internal Combustion Engines (ICE). With the regulators across the globe planning to enforce stricter emission norms in order to improve the air quality and owing to similar demand from the end customers, there is a need for technology to evolve towards harnessing the best energy efficiency using multiple technologies/architectures. However, considering that the majority of two wheelers are used by a population which is cost sensitive, it is imperative that efficient topologies need to be made available at affordable costs. The authors attempt to decipher this need for personal mobility coupled with the stringent regulations. This includes an effort to understand access to technology, legislation, rapid urbanization, infrastructure and city-congestion. The approach with this framework includes a split-of-losses analysis on the ICE and evaluating topologies of the vehicle system keeping in view the above constraints. The analysis indicates, that the hybrid electric powertrain could be an ideal fit for the next decade considering the ease of implementation and the potential success factors independent of government policies and intervention.