System Dynamics Modeling of Global Electric Vehicle Adoption Using Vensim: Market Transition Time Toward a Single-Dominant Transport Technology

This study presents a system dynamics framework to estimate the transition time required for electric vehicles (EVs) to become the dominant and potentially unique global transportation technology. The model is developed in Vensim and structurally inspired by the classical system dynamics archetypes Growth of a Field, Capacity and Market Growth, and Competitive Dynamics. These reference structures are integrated into a unified dynamic model that captures technological diffusion, production capacity expansion, infrastructure deployment, cost reduction through learning effects, and competition with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The proposed model represents EV and ICE fleets as interacting stocks, with feedback loops describing market attractiveness, charging infrastructure growth, battery cost decline, policy incentives, and phase-out pressures on conventional vehicles. Nonlinear reinforcing and balancing feedback mechanisms are used to simulate tipping points and saturation dynamics at the global scale. Sensitivity and scenario analyses are conducted to evaluate the influence of battery cost learning rate, infrastructure investment intensity, policy strength, and consumer adoption elasticity on the time required for EVs to achieve near-total market penetration. Results provide quantitative insight into transition timelines under different strategic conditions and identify critical leverage points that accelerate or delay market dominance. The model highlights the importance of coordinated capacity expansion and policy alignment to avoid growth bottlenecks. This research contributes a transparent computational framework for evaluating long-term electrification pathways and supports decision-making in automotive industry planning and energy policy design.