Survivability, Lethality, and Mobility Requirements of Military Vehicles Conducting Future Wet-Gap Crossings

Wet-gap crossings, which involve moving military forces across rivers and other water obstacles, remain among the most difficult operations to plan and execute. These maneuvers are complicated by choke points, fast-flowing water, and the exposure of forces and equipment to enemy fire. Despite these challenges, wet-gap crossings are critical to maintaining operational momentum during large-scale combat operations. This study examines doctrinal approaches to wet-gap crossings and explores the relationship between these operations and observed vehicle losses in the Russia-Ukraine War. Using a mixed-method approach, the analysis integrates daily operational reports from the Institute for the Study of War with visually confirmed equipment loss data from Oryxspioenkop. A custom Wet-Gap Relevance Score (WGRS) was developed using Natural Language Processing techniques to quantify the degree to which each ISW report focused on crossing operations. Statistical analysis shows that pontoon losses cluster within two days of major crossing events, confirming long-standing engineering doctrine regarding the vulnerability of bridging assets. However, the overall correlation between WGRS scores and total daily vehicle losses is weak, suggesting that broader attrition patterns obscure the distinct impact of crossing operations. These findings provide new empirical insight into how doctrinal principles manifest in modern conflict and underscore the design implications for future military vehicles. Effective wet-gap crossings require a diverse fleet: amphibious vehicles to establish bridgeheads, light vehicles that can be rafted to sustain momentum, and heavier vehicles that depend on bridging to continue the assault.