Study on Fluctuation Rules of CCFI Main Routes Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) is an important barometer of the global container shipping market. It is very important for participants in the shipping market to understand its composition. This study takes six representative routes as the research objects and conducts a detailed analysis of the composition of CCFI. The freight rate indices of these routes are decomposed and reconstructed by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) algorithm, aiming to clarify the economic significance of each route and the fluctuation law of the reconstructed components. The research results show that the freight rate fluctuations of the west Coast, Southeast Asia and Mediterranean routes exhibit a complex nonlinear interdependence, and the simple linear model cannot fully reflect this relationship. On the contrary, the trend components of the European and Mediterranean routes effectively identify and represent the main trends within the original freight rate index. Global major events represented by the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have had a huge, lasting and profound impact on the freight rate indices of CCFI’s various routes, and have had a significant influence on the fluctuations of the original series. In contrast, short-term market dynamics and unforeseen events have a relatively limited impact on the route index, characterized by short duration and high frequency. These research results have enhanced the understanding of the formation mechanism of CCFI, which is conducive to shipping market participants better understanding market dynamics and formulating effective market strategies.