Spatio-Temporal Evolution of the China-Laos Railway’s Regional Development Impact: An Integrated Index and Quantitative Analysis

The China-Laos Railway (CLR), a pivotal infrastructure project under the Belt and Road Initiative, presents significant opportunities and challenges for regional development. This study assesses its evolving impact on regional development by constructing a multi-faceted “Development Index” (weighted via entropy method) and employing quantitative analyses including the Theil index, kernel density estimation (KDE), and Markov chain models (traditional and spatial). Results demonstrate that the CLR significantly accelerates overall economic growth along its route. While initial development patterns show increased concentration, reflected in a rising Theil index (0.49 to 0.56), this polarization signifies the emergence of potent growth poles, particularly in core cities. KDE analysis illustrates enhanced dynamism and a developing bimodal structure in these core areas. Crucially, spatial Markov analysis demonstrates significant positive spillovers: proximity to high-performing areas markedly increases regions’ upward transition probability. While peripheral path dependency exists, the results highlight the CLR’s potential for broader development. Realizing this requires policies that improve the surrounding environment to leverage spillover effects from these emerging growth poles.