In this study, the effects of heatwaves (HWs) on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
leaks were analyzed using the Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA)
program. For this purpose, data from an accident at a gas station in the Eryaman
District of Ankara in January 2024 were utilized. Approximately 40 m3
of LPG was released during the incident, but no explosion occurred. The accident
was simulated using atmospheric data from the accident date in the ALOHA
program. In the simulations, emissions of propane and butane—the primary
components of LPG—were modeled separately.
To simulate the LPG leak during a HW, a HW was first defined based on daily
maximum temperature data. The threshold was set at the 90th percentile, and
temperatures persisting for three or more consecutive days were classified as a
HW. Using this definition, a four-day HW in Ankara in July 2024 was identified.
The atmospheric conditions during this HW were input into the ALOHA program for
simulation.
The study compared the simulation results of the LPG leak in January with those
during the HW period. The findings showed that the sub-explosion areas for
propane and butane during the HW were 2% (95% CI: 0.91–1.15, p > 0.05) and 9%
(95% CI: 0.84–1.42, p < 0.05) larger, respectively, than those during the
accident in January.
As a result, the study highlights the need for stricter safety measures during
summer months when transporting explosive materials.