Reliability Prediction Methodology and Procedures

Reliability prediction is the process of quantitatively assessing the reliability of a system during its development. It permits a quantitative evaluation of design alternatives and progress being achieved relative to a reliability target.

This paper introduces the prediction process as applied to electronic systems and components and discusses its applications and limitations.

The several techniques such as parts count and part stress analysis are described along with application procedures.

A key element to prediction is availability of credible data on the component parts that comprise electronic systems. Major attention is given to models of MIL-HDBK-217B. Most Handbook data requires translation from military to typical automotive conditions particularly with regard to operational environment. Guidelines and recommendations for utilization of 217B methodology and data for predicting reliability for automotive electronic systems is described.