Reliability Prediction of Automotive Electronics - How Well Does MIL-HDBK-217-D Stack UP?

The MIL-HDBK-217 electronic reliability models have been in use for nearly two decades and more recently extended to automotive applications. Public domain information about the accuracy of the models is infrequent due in part to the extensive efforts to conduct such verification studies. This paper addresses the issue through a study of predicted versus field performance levels for eight electronic modules used in automobiles. The results showed that the difference between the predicted and field data ranged from 39 percent low to 107 percent high, with the nominal predictions being about 24 percent higher than the field levels. It could not be ascertained if the error was due to the field data and/or the prediction method.