Reliability Estimation of Large-Scale Dynamic Systems by using Re-analysis and Tail Modeling

2009-01-0200

04/20/2009

Event
SAE World Congress & Exhibition
Authors Abstract
Content
Probabilistic studies can be prohibitively expensive because they require repeated finite element analyses of large models. Re-analysis methods have been proposed with the premise to estimate accurately the dynamic response of a structure after a baseline design has been modified, without recalculating the new response. Although these methods increase computational efficiency, they are still not efficient enough for probabilistic analysis of large-scale dynamic systems with low failure probabilities (less or equal to 10-3). This paper presents a methodology that uses deterministic and probabilistic re-analysis methods to generate sample points of the response. Subsequently, tail modeling is used to estimate the right tail of the response PDF and the probability of failure a highly reliable system. The methodology is demonstrated on probabilistic vibration analysis of a realistic vehicle FE model.
Meta TagsDetails
DOI
https://doi.org/10.4271/2009-01-0200
Pages
16
Citation
Mourelatos, Z., Song, J., and Nikolaidis, E., "Reliability Estimation of Large-Scale Dynamic Systems by using Re-analysis and Tail Modeling," SAE Technical Paper 2009-01-0200, 2009, https://doi.org/10.4271/2009-01-0200.
Additional Details
Publisher
Published
Apr 20, 2009
Product Code
2009-01-0200
Content Type
Technical Paper
Language
English