Quantitative Methods Improve Rotorcraft Safety Risk Management

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is the process of assessing hazards using statistical techniques such as life data analysis to quantify the risk associated with those hazards, and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigating actions. QRA can accurately and objectively predict the risk of future events, whereas qualitative risk matrices used in the past provide a subjective categorization of events. QRA is becoming more widely recognized as an effective element of the safety risk management process, however, it is a more complex process which can lead to misunderstanding and skepticism. Greater understanding and increased application of QRA can enhance rotorcraft safety, and the history and examples of the process demonstrate its credibility, usefulness, and effectiveness. Recent policy initiatives encourage a more data-driven approach, such as QRA, to safety risk management. QRA establishes the uncorrected and corrected risk levels, and the risk level needs to be maintained below certain guidelines in order to maintain an acceptable level of safety. New, uniform hazard definitions and risk level guidelines specific to rotorcraft were established by a joint rotorcraft industry and FAA initiative in 2014.