Projection of the Perceived Cost of Ownership for Commercial Vehicles in China by 2040

The rapid development of alternative fuel and energy-saving technology in China necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of commercial vehicles. This study collects data and builds a TCO model based on the evaluation of the future perceived cost of ownership for buses and trucks in China from 2020 to 2040. In addition, this study establishes a detailed database to store relevant data and creates a web-based platform for users to customize the inputs such as vehicle type, fuel type, use purpose, and year to retrieve TCO data with projections under multiple technology evolution scenarios, including optimistic, reference, and pessimistic scenarios. The study emphasizes the role of multi-scenario modeling and dynamic data updates in accurately forecasting future cost trends across different vehicle types. This study quantifies how TCO changes across various vehicle types. By 2040, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to be the most cost-effective choice for buses and trucks, driven by declining battery costs and fuel prices, with a projected cost reduction of 30-35% compared to 2020. BEVs are likely to dominate over 60% of the urban bus market. While fuel-cell electric vehicles will be likely to have a cost reduction and become more competitive, they will remain less cost-efficient than BEVs. Traditional powertrains like compressed natural gas vehicles, conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, and hybrid electric vehicles are projected to lose market share by 2040 due to rising TCO. In conclusion, this study highlights that BEVs will dominate the market by 2040, driven by declining battery costs and increasing fuel efficiency, especially in urban bus applications.