Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of the Vision for Space Exploration for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project will investigate systems integration and test for the Vision for Space Exploration. The goal of AIM is to reduce the risk of future human missions by identifying those significant risks that Earth-based integration and test can reduce. AIM will focus on the mission requirements that need verification beyond component/subsystem testing, but that can still be tested on Earth. In order to help set priorities for AIM, this paper describes a preliminary Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) framework that was developed based on the Vision for Space Exploration. The PRA provides a decision-making tool to balance mission risk, performance, and cost.