Probabilistic Methodology for Multi-Fidelity Model-Based Robust Preliminary Design of Rotorcraft

A novel methodology for the robust preliminary design of rotorcraft is presented. The methodology is model-based as opposed to empirically driven. A systems-engineering-inspired mindset is followed, manifesting in a hierarchical approach to both design and modeling. The sources of uncertainty in a model-based design environment are discussed. A concept to cope with these uncertainties in the context of preliminary design is presented. The hierarchical multifidelity modeling strategy is depicted, after which the importance of a methodical and traceable model development strategy across model fidelity levels is pointed out. A corresponding probabilistic approach is presented. A method of merging these elements into a coherent methodology for robust preliminary design is outlined. A demonstration of the developed methodology is subsequently conducted by applying this methodology to a fictive preliminary design problem. Ultimately, a discussion of the methodology is given based on the obtained results. The viability of the methodology for quantifying and controlling the model-related uncertainty prevalent in model-based preliminary design is successfully demonstrated.