Predictive Obsolescence Management

This abstract is towards Aerospace Sustainability - End-of-Life Management for Aerospace Assets. In the field of Aerospace, which has a long Life-Cycle process [20-30Years], Component Obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents Maintenance & sustenance of a product with committed life-cycle period. Obsolescence Management plays a vital role by deriving strategic plans on proactive obsolescence where the system needs to be supported for several decades. This abstract analyzes the obsolescence challenges in the Aviation industry especially in Avionics System impacted by component obsolescence and present the possible proactive obsolescence management in terms of Engineering, Technology, and business/cost elements. The Obsolescence problem cannot be avoided but the impact of obsolescence and mitigate the risk can be minimized by planning and managing response. The obsolescence risk assessment for the Bill Of Materials (BOM) is a paramount activity to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. Digital Transformation of analyzing the component obsolescence status and integrated with statistical model to predict the End of Life (EOL) of sub-system/System. The EOL predictions would aid Obsolescence management plan, with mitigation strategies including Form-Fit-Function (FFF) replacements, component life extension through refurbishment, Lead-Free Control plan, component counterfeit and collaborative frameworks for modular, open-standard designs. This approach aimed at reducing unplanned costs by up to 40% on DMSMS (Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages) Management Plan, aligning with IEC 62402 (International standard for obsolescence management) and ARINC 662-1 (Guidelines for obsolescence management in commercial aircraft).