Prediction of Lane Change on the Expressway Based on Logistic Regression

In autonomous driving system, lane change decision-making plays an important role as the front-end of lateral control. However, the current prediction methods of lane change are typically performed by using basic variables as the features of model without deep processing, which reduces the accuracy of the prediction. Therefore, we propose a binary logistic regression method to solve the lane change decision problem under expressway conditions, which treat quantified willingness and risk as the inputs. Firstly, we design Lane Changing Willingness function and Lane Changing Risk function with the minimum safety spacing theory and traffic environment factors. Secondly, a binary logistic regression method for predicting lane change behavior is proposed. Thirdly, we develop the driving simulation platform with low latency data collecting tools and design the experiments. After training the model with the experiment data, the proposed method predicts the lane change decision with 94.02% accuracy, and the time consumed for predicting 10, 000 samples is only 34 milliseconds.