Prediction of Battery Self-Discharge Under Sparse Data Using Physics-Guided Machine Learning

Predicting battery self-discharge across wide temperature ranges and extended durations remains a significant challenge due to the scarcity of physical test data, which is typically limited to a few temperature points and short observation windows. This limitation complicates generalization and increases the risk of inaccurate extrapolation. To address this, the paper introduces a machine learning–based framework designed to predict self-discharge behavior under diverse thermal conditions and long time horizons. Multiple modeling strategies are examined, including feedforward neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures, synthetic data generation, and physics-informed integration of governing equations. Particular emphasis is placed on hybrid and physics-regularized models that embed first-principles relationships to guide extrapolation beyond the observed data domain. This approach mitigates the inherent instability and potential errors associated with purely data-driven models. Each method is evaluated for predictive accuracy, robustness, and physical plausibility. The paper concludes with recommendations for model selection, and deployment strategies within battery aging prediction workflows.