Prediction of Aircraft Safety Performance in Complex Flight Situations

A generic situational model of the “pilot (automaton) - aircraft - operational environment” system is employed as a ‘virtual safety test article’. The goal is to identify a priori potentially catastrophic, safe and interim developments in the system behavior in complex (multi-factor) flight situations. Distinguishing features of the technique include: affordability and autonomy of experimentation (a pilot and special hardware are not required), easy planning and fast-time simulation of a large number of non-standard flight scenarios on a computer, and automated assessment and classification of ‘flights’ using formalized safety criteria. A software tool called VATES, which implements this technique, is demonstrated. Several new graphic-analytical formats designed for system safety knowledge mapping are introduced using realistic situation examples.