Post-Warranty Distribution: A New Approach to Modeling the Reliability of Products with Built-In Obsolescence

This paper presents a proposed new statistical distribution which models product reliability in those situations where obsolescence is built in. Typically products in this class are designed so that very few failures occur prior to a predetermined point, after which the majority of units fail within a short timespan. From the reliability point of view automobiles are manufactured for a life span of five years, after which purchase of a new vehicle or a costly major overhaul is required. Examples are discussed which show that the Post-Warranty Distribution is the best fit for this situation.