Next-Gen Italian Urban Mobility: Emissions LCA and TCO Prospective for Innovative Transportation Solutions

Reducing the number of vehicles and enhancing collective transport can significantly contribute to the reduction of emissions associated with the transport sector. Urban mobility vehicles are rapidly evolving, driven by the need for more sustainable and efficient transport solutions. In this context, both hydrogen-fueled and battery electric buses show the potential to decarbonize the transport sector. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) framework is crucial to evaluate overall carbon emissions, as well as those related to energy/hydrogen production and vehicle/powertrain manufacturing, to assess the overall lifecycle impact. Furthermore, even pollutant emissions for vehicle manufacturing, energy production, combustion and components’ wear have to be carefully evaluated to assess the overall environmental impact. Being such powertrains and related infrastructures still in the development phase, the evaluation of the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) provides a comprehensive view of long-term expenses, including purchase, operation and maintenance costs. By coupling environmental aspects evaluations and TCO, stakeholders are able to make informed decisions on the overall impact of their fleet, both from an environmental and an economic prospective. This paper proposes a comprehensive analysis of the carbon and pollutant emissions coupled with TCO evaluation of innovative low-impact powertrains designed for urban mobility. Current and future Italian energy scenarios are analyzed by examining the projected evolution of the energy mix and hydrogen production synergically with the forecasted upcoming advancements in the components manufacturing market, both in terms of cost and associated emissions. This research aims to support informed decision-making and promote the adoption of powertrain innovations that minimize both economic and environmental aspects, aligning with broader sustainability goals for urban mobility.