Monte Carlo Methods for Evaluating Flight Performance of Sounding Rockets in the International Rocket Engineering Competition

2025-36-0106

12/18/2025

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In the launch of sounding rockets, several factors can affect their performance, including uncertainties in aerodynamic design, environmental conditions at the launch site (e.g., wind and temperature), and propulsion-related aspects like the thrust curve and possible deviations. Given these variables, conducting extensive simulations becomes essential to map their influence on the flight. Monte Carlo simulation is a numerical analysis technique that uses random numbers to solve complex problems involving uncertainties and stochastic variables. In rocketry, this method helps analyze the rocket’s flight behavior while accounting for uncertainties in key inputs. In this context, this study presents the Monte Carlo method for simulating university-level sounding rockets, enabling an assessment of the sensitivity of key parameters. To conduct this analysis, five variables were taken into account, including wind, propulsion uncertainties, aerodynamic coefficient uncertainties, and mass properties (e.g., center of gravity estimation). The results showed that the rocket was stable and performed as expected, successfully reaching the target altitude. Among the different factors analyzed, wind had the most significant impact on performance, affecting both stability adjustments and trajectory dispersion. Variations in the thrust curve and minor aerodynamic uncertainties also had some influence, though to a lesser extent.
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15
Citation
Oliveira Junior, Wilson Luiz de, Heloise Assis Fazzolari, and Carlos Alberto de Paiva Carvalho, "Monte Carlo Methods for Evaluating Flight Performance of Sounding Rockets in the International Rocket Engineering Competition," SAE Technical Paper 2025-36-0106, 2025-, .
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Published
11 hours ago
Product Code
2025-36-0106
Content Type
Technical Paper
Language
English