On Modeling the Total Cost of Ownership of Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

2020-01-1435

04/14/2020

Features
Event
WCX SAE World Congress Experience
Authors Abstract
Content
Sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs), which include battery-only electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), have steadily grown in the past years amidst various incentive programs. While incentives are important, or perhaps essential during early phases of market introduction, they may not be feasibly sustainable when/if PEV sales ramp up to mass-market levels. As such, much interest and speculation exist on how soon could PEVs become cost-competitive without incentives. Research in this paper adopts a bottom-up approach for estimating sale price and total cost of ownership (TCO) for new vehicles. A critical review is also conducted for various publicly available sources of information pertaining to PEVs and conventional internal combustion-engine (CICE) vehicles. Due to the existence of some uncertainty about current costs, let alone future costs, a sensitivity analysis is conducted. In the various scenarios considered in the sensitivity analysis, a combination of cost predictions being better than the baseline case may allow some of the PEVs to have better TCO than a CICE within the 2030 timeframe. However, even the most optimistic scenarios considered did not show PEVs reaching purchase price parity by 2030 compared to a CICE.
Meta TagsDetails
DOI
https://doi.org/10.4271/2020-01-1435
Pages
11
Citation
Hamza, K., Laberteaux, K., and Chu, K., "On Modeling the Total Cost of Ownership of Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles," SAE Technical Paper 2020-01-1435, 2020, https://doi.org/10.4271/2020-01-1435.
Additional Details
Publisher
Published
Apr 14, 2020
Product Code
2020-01-1435
Content Type
Technical Paper
Language
English