The analysis reported on in this paper examines environmental, energy and economic benefits for specific, though different, proposed state wide high speed rail (HSR) systems combined with a regional maglev proposal under review in Florida. One of the HSR proposals and the maglev system are projected to be fully permitted within the next eighteen months and operational by the 1994-96 period.
The specifics of each applicants proposals are integrated into a complex computer model which reflect different; 1) technologies and speeds, 2) energy demands and other resource needs, 3) system service level characteristics, 4) ridership levels, 5) modal splits combined with 6) other system differences.
This computer model then integrates the unique a) fuel consumption and b) emission levels of the actual electrical generation grid supplying the HSR and maglev systems in central and south Florida.
Finally, the model quantitatively combines this data with equivalent emissions, energy and other system information on auto and airplane transportation modes. This data and pertinent user characteristics enable the model to estimate precise environmental, energy and economic benefits (expressed in 1990 dollars) for each unique HSR and maglev transportation system for the year 1999 alone.
The results of this Florida specific analysis conclude that implementation of a HSR proposal and the maglev system will annually result in:
Economic and Energy Benefits
- Time savings valued to $85 million.
Automobile wear and maintenance savings valued to $37.4 million.
Property and injury loss savings valued to $8 million.
Reduction in annual transportation energy consumption of between 1.13 to 1.69 trillion Btus.
Reduced dependence of $28.4 million on fossil fuel to power our transportation systems.
Reduction of $23.5 million in imported oil thereby strengthening this nation's domestic economy by A) reducing negative balance of payments, B) increasing reliance on domestic sources of energy, and C) increasing domestic security.
Reduce the annual economic damages (externalities) from transportation air pollution emissions.
Additionally HSR/maglev systems will result in
-
Savings in new highway construction costs exceeding $1 billion.
-
Up to 217,979 man year direct and indirect construction employment.
Up to $20 billion in indirect construction income.
-
As much as 9,908 annual permanent operations jobs created both direct and indirect.
Over $300 million annually in direct and indirect operation employment income.
-
- Enhanced transportation productivity by a factor of three over current modes.
Environmental Emissions Benefits and Costs
- Annual reductions of between 555 to 633 tons/year of Volatile Organic Carbons (VOC) emissions.
Annual reductions of between 3,035 to 4,746 tons (2753 to 4305 mtons) year of Carbon Monoxide (CO).
Annual reductions of between 53,890 to 54,467 tons (48878 to 49402 mtons) year of Carbon Dioxide (CO2).
Annual reductions of between 877 to 1,184 tons (795 to 1074 mtons) year of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx).
Annual reductions of between 57 to 84 tons (52 to 76 mtons) year of Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) matter.
Annual reductions of between 49 to 78 tons (44 to 71 mtons) year of tire wear particulate matter.
Annual increases of between 132 to 173 tons (120 to 157 mtons) year of Sulfur Oxides (SOx).
Total non-CO2 auto and airplane emissions exceed HSR and maglev emissions by a factor of 14.
Total automobile and airplane emissions (including CO2) exceed HSR and maglev emissions by 200%.
With proper mitigation measures, environmentally related noise impacts can be resolved.
Growth in all Benefits/Costs
All of these HSR/maglev social benefits will rise by a factor of 1.75 of any percentage improvements in trip times while ridership revenues to system owners could rise by a factor of 2.7.