Human Reliability in Aircraft Maintenance Operations: A Quantitative Analysis Through Evidential Reasoning-Enhanced SPAR-H Methodology

The reliability of aviation maintenance personnel directly impacts flight safety, yet systematic methodologies for the quantitative prediction of human error probability (HEP) in this domain remain lacking. To address this gap, a novel human factors reliability analysis method for aviation maintenance is proposed, extending the SPAR-H model through Evidential Reasoning (ER). This method is implemented as follows: Maintenance tasks are decomposed into subtasks. Subsequently, the eight types of Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) for each subtask are evaluated by domain experts according to defined PSF levels. Expert judgments are then aggregated using Evidential Reasoning theory, enabling the calculation of aggregated PSF levels. These aggregated levels are interpolated to determine the corresponding impact multipliers. Finally, the HEP for aviation maintenance operations is calculated by integrating the SPAR-H basic error probability model with task series/parallel logic rules. The proposed methodology is validated using an inspection operation case study. This study establishes a methodological framework for human factors reliability analysis in aviation maintenance, providing a theoretical foundation for developing scientifically grounded prevention and control measures to enhance aviation safety levels.