Global–Regional Energy Balance Climate Modeling Framework for Country-Level Temperature Projections Based on CO₂ Radiative Forcing

This study presents a computational framework for estimating country-level temperature projections based on global radiative forcing from CO₂ emissions. The methodology integrates a carbon-cycle accumulation module, a logarithmic radiative forcing formulation, and a dynamic one-box energy balance model (EBM) to simulate global mean temperature evolution. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is computed from cumulative global emissions using an airborne fraction parameter. Radiative forcing is then determined using the established logarithmic relationship between concentration and forcing. The global temperature response is calculated dynamically by solving the transient energy balance equation, incorporating effective heat capacity and climate sensitivity parameters. To regionalize projections without relying on high-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs), an empirical regional amplification factor is introduced. This coefficient is derived from historical regression between observed regional and global temperature anomalies. The resulting formulation enables country-level temperature estimation as a scaled response to global mean warming while preserving physical consistency with radiative forcing theory. The framework is computationally efficient and suitable for implementation in spreadsheet environments or lightweight numerical platforms, enabling rapid scenario testing of emission pathways. Although the model does not resolve atmospheric circulation, precipitation changes, or nonlinear feedback variability at regional scales, it provides a transparent and physically grounded approach for comparative warming assessments across countries. The proposed methodology establishes a structured link between global climate energetics and regional temperature response, supporting engineering-oriented climate risk analysis and emission policy sensitivity evaluation.