Gasoline Consumption for the Car Fleet of Tomorrow

During the next eight years (to 1985), U.S. motor gasoline consumption is expected to increase slightly, level off, and then begin a slow decline. President Carter's proposed National Energy Plan may result in an even faster decline in gasoline sales if it is sanctioned by Congress. Over the same period, the required gasoline pool octane will increase in response to increased unleaded gasoline sales, the EPA's lead phase-down schedule and predicted engine modifications for improved efficiency. This paper reviews the effects of these trends on the refining industry. Gasoline shortages are not foreseen, assuming reasonable regulatory actions by government.