Forecasting Electric Vehicle Fleet Growth and Energy Requirements in the UK

With the United Kingdom’s goal to achieve a fully decarbonised energy sector by 2035 and achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the transition of the UK’s passenger car fleet to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) plays a crucial role in reaching this goal. This study evaluates the environmental and energy impact of large-scale BEV adoption by modelling future uptake scenarios using historical fleet data combined with assumed impact of future policy such as the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles. Three predictive models have been developed: fast uptake, in which approximately 100% of the passenger car fleet is replaced by BEVs; moderate uptake, where a large majority of passenger cars are BEVs; and slow uptake, in which BEV adoption does not reach a majority. The results have shown that, if a medium- or large-scale adoption is possible by 2040 predicting nearly 37 million BEVs on the road, the associated electricity demand is predicted to rise close to 110 TWh annually, signifying the need for rapid development in renewable energy generation. Although BEVs significantly reduce transport sector emissions, the overall climate impact is dependent on a continued effort of grid decarbonisation.