Three years of research, and two papers, showing a strong
correspondence between traffic fatality rates and the business
cycle, have proven that, alcohol aside, the fundamental cause of
traffic accidents is the mentally distracted driver.
This paper is in four parts. A quick review of the
discovery/development of the Driver''s Economic Distraction
Indicator (DEDI - SAE 970280 on European expressways in the
''70s) and its application to all traffic fatalities in
countries around the world (in F98S565). The DEDI is then updated
to the ''90s while exploring: a) the use of M2 (as
recommended by the American economist, Dr. Milton Friedman) instead
of M1; b) OECD''S new Composite Leading Indicators; and c)
the use of a locally available leading economic indicator (i.e.,
new vehicle sales) to give an early warning of a rise in local
traffic accidents. The DEDI case studies on the long-term
correspondence of economics and accident rates are expanded to
Korea and, with the inclusion of South Africa and Brazil, to all 6
inhabited continents.
In the third section, the DEDI returns to its origins to
demonstrate that the European Conference of Ministers of Transport
(ECMT) was tragically wrong in its recommendation (Budapest Council
29 and 30 May, 1996) on the harmonization of general speed limits
at "120 km/h on motorways;" [from the "NOTES,"
6 the German Delegation entered a reservation under this
point."] The OECD report SPEED MODERATION cites ten
"speed limit" studies in various countries over the
previous quarter century as support for the recommendation. In
every one of the ten studies the observed reduction of
accidents/fatalities (wrongly attributed in each case to the
imposition of a speed limit) is completely explained by the lower
rate of driver distraction associated with deteriorating economic
prospects. The last section discusses various technical,
educational and regulatory means for distraction moderation.