Evolution of Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles Compared to Conventional Vehicles from 2010 to 2045

Fuel cell vehicles are undergoing extensive research and development because of their potential for high efficiency and low emissions. Because fuel cell vehicles remain expensive and there is limited demand for hydrogen at present, very few fueling stations are being built. To try to accelerate the development of a hydrogen economy, some original equipment manufacturers in the automotive industry have been working on a hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engine (ICE) as an intermediate step. This paper compares the fuel economy potential of hydrogen powertrains to conventional gasoline vehicles. Several timeframes are considered: 2010, 2015, 2030, and 2045. To address the technology status uncertainty, a triangular distribution approach was implemented for each component technology. The fuel consumption and cost of five powertrain configurations will be discussed and compared with the conventional counterpart.