Estimating Extreme Water Levels in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady Seas by the Monte Carlo Method

Storm surge disasters in the northern Indian Ocean and along the Bay of Bengal pose substantial risks to the safety of lives, property, and industrial trade within Myanmar's Ayeyarwady Region. The absence of long-term tidal data makes traditional frequency analysis methods inadequate for accurately predicting extreme water levels with high return periods. This study utilizes numerical simulations to forecast extreme water levels caused by recurrent cyclonic storm surges along Myanmar's coastline. A combined approach using the Monte Carlo stochastic model and the Delft3D hydrodynamic model was employed for these simulations. The results show that the Delft3D model is effective in predicting tidal levels in engineering contexts, addressing data deficiencies while identifying critical water levels. Model accuracy was validated through extensive simulations, confirming its suitability for forecasting extreme water levels. Although some discrepancies may arise due to limited data availability, the results offer a valuable scientific reference for flood management and engineering design and provide guidance for predicting extreme water levels in regions with similar data constraints.