Emissions Projections and Their Relevance to Power Plant Design

The gross emissions for the Australian vehicle fleet are forecast from estimates of population growth, vehicle ownership and vehicle in-service performance. These estimates are coupled with sensitivity analyses, to emissions deterioration and on-road performance and the impact of alternative fuels.

It is concluded that more data on precontrol and high mileage controlled vehicles is needed to remove uncertainties in the projections. The results indicate that existing vehicle emission control standards will continue to give beneficial reductions in hydrocarbon emission levels through to 1995 and present levels will not be exceeded this century.

Ambient ozone trends have fallen and are qualatatively in accord with reducing vehicle emissions. This suggests that power plants should continue to be designed to present U.S.73 (ADR27A) emissions standards and implementation of catalyst/lead free gasoline technology deferred beyond the proposed 1986 implementation date unless present air quality trends are not maintained.