Defining the Uncertainty of Reliability Predictions

Typically reliability predictions result in a specific value (point estimate) for the reliability or failure rate with no measure of the uncertainty that is involved in the result.

It is possible to determine the magnitude of the uncertainty of a reliability prediction by statistically defining the distribution of each of the variables in the prediction model and then using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to propagate the uncertainty. This will result in upper and lower reliability bounds to describe the prediction rather than a point estimation.