Defining the Uncertainty of Reliability Predictions

870053

02/01/1987

Event
SAE International Congress and Exposition
Authors Abstract
Content
Typically reliability predictions result in a specific value (point estimate) for the reliability or failure rate with no measure of the uncertainty that is involved in the result.
It is possible to determine the magnitude of the uncertainty of a reliability prediction by statistically defining the distribution of each of the variables in the prediction model and then using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to propagate the uncertainty. This will result in upper and lower reliability bounds to describe the prediction rather than a point estimation.
Meta TagsDetails
DOI
https://doi.org/10.4271/870053
Pages
12
Citation
Vannoy, E., and Lin, T., "Defining the Uncertainty of Reliability Predictions," SAE Technical Paper 870053, 1987, https://doi.org/10.4271/870053.
Additional Details
Publisher
Published
Feb 1, 1987
Product Code
870053
Content Type
Technical Paper
Language
English