Decay Analysis of Xinjiang G577 Asphalt Road Performance Based on Exponential Modeling

The accurate prediction of road performance decay is of great significance for road maintenance and management. This paper takes the Xinjiang G577 highway as the research object, collects the measured data of the typical indexes of asphalt pavement since the past years (Deterioration Condition Index (PCI), Technical Condition Index (PQI)), and studies its decay. The model is constructed on the basis of time series¹, and the exponential decay model of asphalt road PQI and PCI is derived. The model’s accuracy is then tested by calculating the correlation coefficient, mean absolute error (MAE), and other accuracy tests. The results demonstrate that the model exhibits a high degree of fit.