The European crash test program, Euro NCAP, has since its launch
presented results of some 80 individual car models. The
improvements in the general level of protection have been
substantial. While the intention of the test program is to
stimulate the use of best practice, and not to predict real-life
outcome, it is nevertheless important to validate the positive
development, and to pinpoint potential areas not included in the
laboratory safety ratings.
In this study, Euro NCAP rating results were compared with a
comprehensive car model safety rating method based on real-life
crashes, developed by Folksam. In addition, correlation with
relative injury risks was also studied. In the Folksam method, the
ratings are based on the risk of fatalities and long-term
consequences due to injury. The car models were grouped together
according to the Euro NCAP star ratings.
A correlation was found between Euro NCAP scoring and relative
risk of serious and fatal injury as well as for the Folksam rating
score (relative risk of fatality or permanent disability). No
correlation between Euro NCAP scoring and relative risk of any
injury was found. A stronger correlation between risks for serious
consequences was found when AIS1 neck injuries were excluded
compared to when they were included. This indicates correctly that
these injuries are not reflected in the Euro NCAP ratings. The risk
to sustain a police reported severe or fatal injury was found to
diminish with 12% per star. The risk to be fatally injured or
sustaining a long-term disability was found to diminish with 7% per
star.