Collision Avoidance Effectiveness of an Automated Driving System Using a Human Driver Behavior Reference Model in Reconstructed Fatal Collisions

Avoiding and mitigating any potential collision is dependent on (1) road user ability to avoid entering into a conflict (conflict avoidance effect) and (2) road user response should a conflict be entered (collision avoidance effect). This study examined the collision avoidance effect of the Waymo Driver, a currently deployed SAE level 4 automated driving system (ADS), using a human behavior reference model, designed to be representative of a human driver that is non-impaired, with eyes on the conflict (NIEON). Reliable performance benchmarking methodologies for assessing ADS performance are an essential component of determining system readiness. This consistently performing, always-attentive driver does not exist in the human population. Counterfactual simulations were run on responder collision scenarios based on reconstructions from a 10-year period of human fatal crashes from the Operational Design Domain of the Waymo ADS in Chandler, Arizona. Of 16 simulated conflicts entered, 12 (75%) were prevented by the Waymo Driver, and 10 (62.5%) were prevented by the NIEON model. The NIEON Model mitigated an additional 5 collisions and did not mitigate 1 collision. In these 16 conflicts entered, 93% of serious injury risk was reduced by the Waymo Driver, whereas 84% of serious injury risk was reduced by the NIEON model. Further, in a case-by-case evaluation, the Waymo Driver’s collision avoidance led to reduced serious injury risk when compared to the NIEON model in every simulated event. The results of this paper demonstrate that a reference model like NIEON can be used to benchmark ADS responder performance in response to high-risk initiating behaviors performed by the current driving population.