How carbon quota policy guides the sustainable and rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry

The sustainable and healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry requires the support and guidance of relevant policies, but at present, China's automotive industry is facing problems such as subsidy regression and points redundancy. In order to better guide the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and support the realization of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, it is necessary to explore new policies. Carbon quota policy is considered to be an effective measure to realize the dual-carbon goal. In this context, this study discusses the incentive mechanism of carbon quota policy for technological innovation in new energy vehicles and makes recommendations for policy implementation. First, this study applies multinomial Logit theory to analyze consumers' car purchase choice behavior, and establishes a market share prediction model for passenger cars of different power types based on three key attributes: range, acquisition and usage cost, and power type market acceptance. Secondly, based on the GREET model, this study builds a model to measure the carbon dioxide emissions of traditional gasoline vehicles, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, calculates the carbon emissions of each power type of vehicles at the present stage in China, and measures the future carbon emission credits of China's automobile industry. Finally, this study carries out the simulation of the system dynamics model of the automobile industry, with the goal of guiding the innovation of new energy technology and the targeted design of the policy scenarios, and obtains the carbon quota policy suitable for the rapid development of China's new energy automobile industry.