This study aims to quantify, through Monte Carlo simulation (100,000 iterations),
the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the complete production cycle
of ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil, expressed in kg CO2eq/ha, and to
project these emissions over a 20-year horizon. To achieve this, the production
cycle was segmented into distinct stages - land use change, soil management and
preparation, fertilization, harvesting and straw management, soil carbon
sequestration, and industrial processing - and the parameters for each stage
were defined based on recent. Three representative scenarios were considered:
Worst-case (unsustainable practices involving conversion of native vegetation,
high fertilizer dosages, and complete burning of the straw), Typical
(conventional practices, with conversion of degraded pastures and sustainable
management), and Ideal (best practices, characterized by reduced input dosages,
the use of nitrification inhibitors, and high straw retention). The results
indicate that, under sustainable practices, ethanol exhibits a significantly
lower carbon footprint compared to gasoline, whose typical emissions range
between 2.8 and 3.0 kg CO2eq/L. These findings reinforce the
potential of Brazilian ethanol to contribute to GHG emission reductions and
underscore the importance of adopting sustainable agricultural practices.