Assessing Error in Reliability Estimates Obtained via CAE Simulations

When using a math model to estimate the failure rate of a product, or the mean and standard deviation of performance characteristics of the product, one important issue is the accuracy of the estimates. All math models have error. This error will be transmitted to the error in the estimates of failure rate, mean, and standard deviation. This paper presents a method to calculate the bounds on the transmitted error, which can then be used to 1) obtain confidence bounds on estimates of mean, standard deviation, and failure rate; and 2) establish accuracy requirements on math models.