The Application Of Ceramics To Heat Engines: An Economic Assessment Based On A Worldwide Delphi Survey

The introduction of ceramic engine components and ceramic-intensive engines for transportation applications will significantly affect the U.S. economy and the state of International competition in this advanced-technology field. A worldwide Delphi survey of more than 150 experts in this field provided data on the expected timing and rate of that led to market penetration projections. By the mid-1990s, according to the projections, a substantial number of ceramic engine components will be in production and ceramic-intensive engines will be introduced. Annual energy savings impacts are projected to be 380 trillion Btu, worth $5.5 billion, in 2010. The U.S. gross national product (GNP) could differ by $42 billion (in 1986 dollars) in 2001, depending on whether the U.S. or another nation leads in manufacturing engine ceramics. A potential peak GNP gain of up to $13 billion/year in 1998 is projected if U.S. leadership can be achieved, vs. up to a $30 billion/year loss in 2001 if foreign leadership occurs. Developments needed to displace Japan from leadership in engine ceramics - shifting the focus of development to the U.S. - and the resulting benefits to the U.S., are discussed.