Aggregate Emissions from the Automobile Population

A methodology is presented with which aggregate emissions from the in-use automobile population can be calculated for any given calendar year. The data base needed for such a calculation is discussed, and areas in which further research is needed are pointed out. Results of a series of calculations are then presented showing the effect on aggregate emissions of various control strategies. The effects of an inspection/maintenance and retrofit program, different vehicle population growth rates, catalyst deterioration in use, and various schedules of new car emission standards for post-1975 vehicles are presented. It is shown that the rate at which old, higher-polluting vehicles are retired from the in-use vehicle population is the major factor in determining the rate at which aggregate emissions will decrease in the 1970s, with the precise level of post-1975 standards only becoming important in the 1980s.