Actuarial Forecasts for the Automotive Aftermarket

Actuarial forecasts are practical for all products and service parts, including automotive aftermarket service parts. They have been used by the Air Force Material Command for service planning and parts procurement for major engine modules [1, 2], and airlines use them for “fracture critical” engine and structure parts. An automotive aftermarket information provider sells actuarial forecasts of parts demands. It reports that its clients see profits increase 15% when they stock parts accordingly. Actuarial forecast accuracy and precision are substantially better than those of forecasts based on time series extrapolation [3].