Accuracy of Launch Vehicle Cost Analysis

This paper presents a summary of an initial phase of a long term study to develop techniques for accurately predicting launch vehicle costs, and is an initial part of a larger research project to develop a computer program cost model for long range planning. Emphasis is on the accuracy or confidence associated with cost estimates calculated by industry launch vehicle cost models. Results are shown of a statistical analysis of the mean and standard deviation of sample model estimates for various cost elements of a liquid and solid launch vehicle program. The variations in the cost estimates are discussed.