A Monte Carlo Approach to Warranty Repair Predictions

The paper discusses some statistical aspects of warranty repair predictions in automotive industry. The existing Renewal Process approach to model a single component repairable system is reviewed, and its limitations in terms of applicable TTF distributions are discussed. The Superimposed Renewal Process approach to model a multi component repairable system is then considered and its limitations in terms of the error of the superimposed aggregation are pointed out. Finally, a Monte Carlo approach is presented and its advantages over the conventional methods are discussed.