Modeling Design Concepts under Risk and Uncertainty using Parameterized Efficient Sets

Decisions made during conceptual design can have a major impact on the success of a design project. However, the inherently imprecise nature of design is a major source of uncertainty and risk in conceptual design decisions. A single concept relates to a large set of specific design implementations, each of which has a different level of desirability based on the tradeoffs designers are willing to make. It therefore is beneficial for designers to have an understanding of the various tradeoffs they can achieve by implementing a concept. In this paper, we describe an approach to modeling design concepts under uncertainty based on a tradeoff space representation. We use the principles of decision making to develop a useful interpretation of a tradeoff space for decisions under uncertainty and to identify criteria useful for eliminating undesirable tradeoffs from consideration. We illustrate our approach to modeling and decision making on an example for the conceptual design of a gearbox.