Understanding Subsidies to Achieve Diesel Powertrain Financial Parity for Heavy-Duty Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

The development of a long-term sustainable hydrogen energy economy for commercial vehicle transportation will need to overcome key critical technical and logistics considerations in the near term. As compared to zero-emission powertrains, fossil-fuel-based powertrains provide mission flexibility and high uptime at a comparatively low total cost of ownership (TCO). While the incumbent carbon-intensive powertrains suffer from poor efficiency and are not sustainable to support global climate change initiatives in transportation decarbonization, techno-economic challenges continue to create complex barriers to the large-scale displacement of these with highly electrified powertrains architectures. This article specifically addresses opportunities that well-targeted subsidies would afford in achieving fuel cell electric powertrain financial parity with diesel powertrains in heavy-duty trucks (HDTs). It shows that a rigorous assessment of system TCO factors will be critical in designing a viable subsidy strategy. Based on powertrain component and fuel price points, subsidy variations (for both capital expenses and operating fuel expenses) are assessed and quantified to determine where and how much subsidies should be leveraged to accelerate achieving diesel system financial parity. It shows that subsidies on hydrogen fuel expenses (and associated constituents) will play an important role in achieving this goal while subsidies on capital expenses (the more typical subsidy formulation) may not always be the preferred subsidy strategy. The results provide subsidy agencies with clear guidance and a database approach to characterize and implement viable HDT hydrogen powertrain system subsidy strategies. The approach may be readily tailored for other applications and system architectures.