SUPPLIER EYE

September is unofficially known in the industry as a key forecasting month. It's when several suppliers lock in their revenue forecasts for the next year. As we approach 2026, there are still several balls in the air with respect to the trajectory of the light vehicle market. Looming U.S. tariffs, negative economic and geo-political shifts, and the impact of changes to U.S. vehicle emission legislation have all brought with them a cloud of uncertainty that hovers over the industry. An industry that requires greater planning clarity, not less.

Let's start with the tariffs. As of this writing, the major vehicle and parts importers outside of North America have agreed to 15% U.S. tariffs for vehicles and parts. In the case of Japan and the European Union, this is 12.5 percentage points higher than 2024 levels. In the case of South Korea, it's 15 points more, as there was a free trade agreement in force. While these framework agreements drive some level of certainty, the final details still need to be hashed out.