Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current

A computer program implements a mathematical model of the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas resulting from interactions between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field, for the purpose of predicting fluxes of energetic electrons (10 keV to 5 MeV) and protons (10 keV to 1 MeV), which are hazardous to humans and spacecraft. Given solar-wind and interplanetary- magnetic-field data as inputs, the program solves the convection-diffusion equations of plasma distribution functions in the range of 2 to 10 Earth radii. Phenomena represented in the model include particle drifts resulting from the gradient and curvature of the magnetic field; electric fields associated with the rotation of the Earth, convection, and temporal variation of the magnetic field; and losses along particle-drift paths. The model can readily accommodate new magnetic- and electric-field submodels and new information regarding physical processes that drive the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas. Despite the complexity of the model, the program can be run in real time on ordinary computers. At present, the program can calculate present electron and proton fluxes; after further development, it should be able to predict the fluxes 24 hours in advance.